US Hotel Forecast Accuracy Assessment
An evaluation of our US lodging industry performance to assess accuracy found that the STR and Tourism Economics (STR/TE) forecasts were the most accurate among the three widely-referenced industry forecasts over the past two years.
In terms of current-year RevPAR, the four STR/TE forecasts published during 2016 predicted growth within 0.8 percentage points of actual, on average, while the two other publications had larger average errors (0.9 and 1.0 percentage points). Similarly, the STR/TE current-year forecasts published during 2015 had an average forecast error of just 0.4 percentage points, well below both benchmark publications (0.8 and 1.0 percentage points).
Among current year forecasts, the STR/TE forecast was the most accurate – or tied with the most accurate – six out of eight instances, and among next-year forecasts, the STR/TE forecast was the most accurate in four out of eight instances. Read more.