Air Passenger Forecasts

Passenger flows for 4,000 of the world’s largest routes to the year 2036

The Air Passenger Forecast Service is the most comprehensive set of projections on how the airline industry will evolve in the coming years, where more passengers are expected to fly in the next fifteen years than over the past one hundred. 

Jointly created by Tourism Economics and the International Air Transport Association (IATA), the service provides long-term forecasts of air passenger flows for almost 4,000 routes and total flows for 191 countries.


What the Service Includes:

Extensive data-bank. Comparable analysis for nearly 4,000 country and region pairs, with historical data from 2006 and twenty-year forecasts. The data covers air passenger flows as well as economic and demographic data by country and regional aggregate.

Global forecast report. Includes detailed commentary from Tourism Economics and IATA featuring analysis of the baseline forecast plus the impacts of upside and downside alternative scenarios.

Individual country reports. Providing supplementary detailed analysis for the top country markets.

Global trend analysis. We produce two reports each year, one in April, covering long-term factors affecting passenger flows such as travel liberalization, demographics, and energy costs, and one in October, looking at near-term drivers, including the latest year-to-date out-turns and recent changes in economic conditions.

Robust methodology. The data-bank is based on vast, complementary data sets covering air passenger flows, and economic and demographic data by country and regional aggregate. Our web-based data-bank allows users to quickly build custom queries with complete flexibility and visualize the data in tables, charts, and maps. Searches can be saved for future reference and downloaded quickly to Excel and Adobe formats.

Economist support. We provide full client support to answer questions about our data or forecasts.

Service Coverage:

Air Passenger Forecasts provides hundreds of indicators for each origin-destination, including:

  • Summary passenger flows: total passengers, domestic passengers, international passengers.
  • Economic drivers: GDP, real US$; GDP per capita, real USD; population, total; % middle class households; Exchange rate, US$, Exchange rate, weighted average index.