China’s Outbound Recovery: Slowing but Still Rising

The recovery in Chinese outbound travel continues to move forward; however, the pace is beginning to plateau. Forecasts have been downgraded due to weaker-than-expected arrivals, and current expectations indicate that outbound visits will not surpass pre-pandemic levels until 2027.

At the same time, broader economic pressures in China reinforce the cooling momentum. Softer consumer sentiment, the introduction of new U.S. tariffs, and uncertainty around their economic impact are collectively weighing on demand both domestically and internationally.

Looking ahead, destinations aiming to capture Chinese demand must adapt to shifting traveler preferences. Increasing interest in independent travel, longer itineraries, and more authentic, value-focused experiences is reshaping how and where Chinese travelers choose to spend. As a result, average visitor spending may trend lower than in previous years.