Growth, Risks and Chinese Outbound Recovery: the 2025 Travel Outlook for APAC

Recovery to pre-pandemic inbound visit numbers this year will be shared by the majority of countries, with particularly strong outlooks for Japan, South Korea, Indonesia, and India.

The rebound of Chinese outbound travel is continuing to progress. Although the pace of this recovery plateaued in 2024, continued improvement is expected, and Chinese outbound volumes are project to reach pre-pandemic levels by 2026. Short- and medium-haul destinations within APAC are seeing the fastest growth in Chinese arrivals, while recovery for longer-haul destinations in Europe and North America will take longer.

Economic uncertainty and geopolitical tensions remain key risks to the APAC travel recovery, with the potential for slower activity if trade disruptions and consequent economic downturns impact global travel sentiment.

Looking further ahead, the outlook for APAC tourism is strong, with the region expected to gain share of global inbound travel (continuing the long-run trend observed prior to the pandemic). This will be driven by an expanding middle class in China and India, continued improved air connectivity, and supported by shifting preferences among travellers towards ‘authentic’ travel experiences.