Research Brief
US Inbound Travel Arrivals: 2025 Halfway Mark
The forecasted 8.2% decline in annual international arrivals solidifies as headwinds persist.
July 22, 2025
Updated July 20, 2026Recent data releases through June confirm our forecast of an 8.2% decline in international overnight arrivals to the US for 2025, as sentiment headwinds persist.
The fallout from Canada has been steepest, as land crossings and air arrivals contracted 28.0% and 13.3% year-to-date (YTD), respectively.
The pullback in Canadian travel is expected to most negatively impact cities such as Seattle (-26.9% fall in overnight international visitors expected in 2025), Portland (-18.3%), and Detroit (-17.3%).
Overseas arrivals fell 3.4% in June compared to a year ago, bringing the YTD decline to 1.2%. Among key markets, visitors from Ecuador, South Korea, Germany, and France have fallen the most. Strength in Argentina, Italy, and some Asian countries is partly offsetting the declines.
The contraction in international arrivals is most acute in cities highly dependent on Canadian travel, particularly those closer to the northern border. For 2025, we forecast the steepest year-over-year declines will occur in Seattle, Portland, and Detroit.
