US Rolls Up Welcome Mat for International Travel

Our updated US Inbound forecast eclipses the downside scenario estimates we released in late February.

During a wave of uncertainty, one thing is evident—Trump’s policies and pronouncements have produced a negative sentiment shift toward the US among international travelers. We expect the correlating decline in international travel to the US to be strongest in 2025. Persisting degrees of impact are expected throughout the remainder of Trump’s second term.

Charged by these challenges, Tourism Economics’ latest Global Travel Service update includes a stark downgrade for inbound international to the US:

The US travel sector faces a mix of headwinds: 1) negative sentiment, 2) border and immigration policies and uncertainty, 3) reduced competitiveness with a strong dollar, 4) economic slowing in Canada and Mexico, 5) hasty efforts at government efficiency, and now 6) uncertainty on the domestic economy.

• In December 2024, the forecast called for an 8.8% growth in international visitation, with a 16.0% increase in visitor spending. In comparison, this updated outlook represents a substantial setback with the full recovery of international visits to the US pushed out to 2029.
• We now expect a 9.4% decline in international visitor arrivals for 2025, led by a 20.2% decline in visitation from Canada.
  • We forecast international visitor spending in the US to decline 5.0%, a loss of $9.0 billion in spending this year alone.
• This loss includes $6.4 billion of decreased spending in destinations, plus $2.5 billion of lost transportation spending.

Leisure travelers have options. Negative shifts in sentiment toward the US may adversely impact its global market share, resulting in a 1.5 percentage point market share loss by 2026.