The Renewed Risk of a Jet Fuel Shortage

Renewed hostilities between the US and Iran have broken June’s memorandum of understanding, once again restricting the flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz, a route that normally carries roughly 20% of global oil supply. The disruption has put renewed pressure on jet fuel markets and revived concerns about the impact on global air travel.

So far, Europe has weathered the disruption better than feared. Jet fuel consumption at European airports still grew 6.1% year over year in Q2 2026, as refiners maximized jet fuel output and replacement supplies from the US, Nigeria and existing supply lines filled much of the gap.

But the buffer is limited. Europe was initially left 595kbpd short of its jet fuel needs. That gap has narrowed to roughly 155kbpd, equivalent to about 8.5% of the region’s peak summer requirement.

Where the risk is building:

• Europe remains vulnerable if inventories run low, with the UK and France particularly exposed.
• Parts of Asia face even greater supply risk. Japan sourced 90% of its crude oil and refined fuel imports from the Middle East in 2024.
• Timing could compound the pressure as Asia approaches its peak travel season and refiners shift production toward winter diesel.

Tourism Economics modeled two scenarios for what happens if temporary supply fixes can no longer bridge the shortage. In both cases, European air passenger demand is 3.2% lower in 2026, equivalent to 36.2 million fewer passengers than the baseline. In 2027, a persistent fuel deficit could reduce demand by 8.8%, or 107 million passengers. If the shortfall grows, demand could fall 27.8%, or 339 million passengers.

The disruption has been manageable so far. But with inventories being depleted and exposure varying significantly by market, the outlook depends heavily on how long the shortage lasts.

Download the full research briefing to explore the implications for air passenger demand in Europe and beyond.