US Destinations Face Uneven Inbound Travel Slowdown

The slowdown is far from uniform.

Overseas arrivals were down 5.8% year to date through August, while Canadian visitation remains well below recent historical norms. At the same time, Mexico continues to provide meaningful growth, and South America is bucking the broader overseas trend. Those differences are increasingly shaping performance across US destinations.

Only three states recorded growth in international overnight visitors in 2025. States with the greatest exposure to Canada and the least exposure to Mexico experienced some of the sharpest declines, underscoring how much the mix of international visitors matters for individual destinations.

Key takeaways include:

• Overseas arrivals remain under pressure, falling 5.8% year to date through August, with recent performance weaker than previously anticipated.
• Canadian weakness is affecting destinations across the US. Canadian visits to US states declined 21.8% in 2025, with particularly sharp impacts in northern border states.
• Mexico remains a notable bright spot. Arrivals were up 14.6% year to date through June, building on 6.4% growth last year.
• South America is also bucking the trend, with arrivals from the region up 3.8% year to date through August even as Western European arrivals fell 8.8%.
• The economic stakes are significant. Tourism Economics estimates the US will forgo $39.6 billion in inbound travel spending across 2025 and 2026 relative to what would have occurred if the country had maintained its 2024 share of global international travel spending.

The weakness comes against a much stronger backdrop for international travel globally. Rising incomes and wealth are expected to support nearly 50% growth in international traveller spending between 2025 and 2030, highlighting the scale of the opportunity as destinations compete for expanding global demand.

Read the full briefing for a closer look at changing travel patterns from Canada, Mexico, Europe, and South America; the state-level effects of the slowdown; World Cup impacts; and what the latest trends mean for the US inbound outlook.