US Inbound Arrivals to Fall in 2026 Before a Partial 2027 Rebound

A Look at the Lowered 2026 Forecast

Our latest Global Travel Service forecast expects international arrivals to the US to decline 0.7% in 2026, down from the 2.4% growth expected in July. Overseas arrivals were down 5.7% year to date through September. The rebound in travel from Canada has also been weaker than anticipated. Mexico remains the exception, with arrivals up 13.0% year to date through August.

Political rhetoric and policy have led some potential travelers to look elsewhere. The Iran war has raised oil prices and airfares and reduced travel that starts in, or connects through, the Middle East. The World Cup gave participating countries only a modest lift, and overseas arrivals in June and July were still 4.7% below last year.

Key takeaways include:

• Overseas arrivals remain in decline. They fell year over year in seven of the nine months through September and are 8.0% below the same period in 2024. A 5.2% decline is expected for the full year.
• Canada’s recovery has started, but slowly. Land arrivals rose year over year from May through September but remain well below historical averages. Arrivals from Canada are forecast to fall 3.3% in 2026 and grow 4.9% in 2027.
• Mexico remains the main source of growth. Arrivals are forecast to rise 10.3% in 2026, helped by a stronger peso. The peso’s recent weakening points to slower growth in 2027.
• Mexico and South America accounts for effectively all inbound growth in 2026. Every other region is weak, and arrivals from the Middle East and Africa are expected to fall 11.7%.
• The 2027 rebound will be partial. Arrivals are forecast to grow 3.3% in 2027 after two consecutive years of decline, leaving them 3.0% below 2024 levels.

The 2027 outlook depends on a stronger global backdrop for long-haul travel, better relations with Canada, and a partial return to earlier traveler behavior. The midterm results confirmed the divided-government assumption in the baseline, but traveler sentiment toward the US is expected to take time to adjust. Overall, the outlook is subject to heightened uncertainty.